SACRIFICIAL ALTARS AND ARAB GARBAGE DUMPS

One of my correspondents avers that the United States government has chosen sides with the Palestinians and "are telling Israel to disregard its security and hand over Jerusalem", and even asserts that the US are "putting Israel on the sacrificial altar so that they can get the oil cheaper".

I take issue with these meshune points of view.



UNITED STATES SUPPORT

The statement that the US govt is "putting Israel on the sacrificial altar" is on the face of it clearly berserk. The US government is not sacrificing Israel - quite the contrary.
IF the US government supported the Pals instead of Israel, they would not give Israel five billion dollars a year, they would not sell arms and ammo to Israel, they would not give Israel access to advanced weapon systems, they would not share intelligence with Israel.

What may make it seem like the United States is not 100% behind Israel is that the United States is actively involved in the negotiations with the other side, and must occasionally attempt impartiality. Not all of Israel's points are entirely sustainable, and some of the Palestinian objections are valid. Even Israeli governments have recognized as much - hence the concessions that have been made.

What both Israeli and American governments have consistently attempted to achieve in their negotiations is quiescence from the Arab side, co-operation against the violent elements, and agreement on stable borders. These efforts are on-going.

Current negotiations will come to little, however, no matter how much Olmert or Rice seem willing to give up. Both the US and Israel know this.


The crux of the problem is purely Palestinian in nature.


Quiescence requires more stability and cohesion than the Palestinians are capable of while outside agents support dissenting (violent) elements in Palestinian society, whereas co-operation against the violent elements will bring everything from the assassination of moderates to full-scale Hamas-like takeovers and warlordism. These are virtually insurmountable obstacles.

The issue of the stable border is the real stumbling block. The Palestinians cannot accept any peace proposals that do not give them all of Jerusalem and more than their section of the territories. The Palestinian national cause is defined by Jerusalem and the territories, and the Arab world stands behind the Palestinians only to the extent that the Palestinians stand in opposition to Israel. To yield on either of these issues would make them enemies all over the Arab world and among their own ranks. A real peace agreement would mean the end of the Palestinian national cause, and force them to redefine themselves. At present it would be suicidal for them to do so.

The US government knows that the Palestinians cannot make peace, the Israeli government knows that the Palestinians cannot make peace, and the warlord entity in the territories knows that the Palestinians cannot make peace.

But all sides have an interest in pretending that peace is possible, and therefore the process must continue.



OIL

Oil is not a meaningful factor - the oil-Arabs can barely stand the Palestinians and will not change the price of oil based on their weal or woe. The price of oil is strictly determined by market forces. The Palestinians are not a market force.

Indonesia and Nigeria produce vast amounts of oil - they are not interested in the Palestinians. China and India consume vast amounts of oil - they too are not interested in the Palestinians. Kuwait produces huge amounts of oil, and cannot even tolerate the Palestinians.

Russia produces oil, Texas produces oil, Venezuela produces oil, Canada and Alaska produce oil - the Palestinians have nothing to do with their oil nor with who buys it at what price.

Stabbing Israel in the back would indeed give great joy to some of the Arabs, but it would not make the oil any less expensive.

The oil producing nations and the oil-consuming nations drive the market. Oil is sold at the highest price that the market will bear. No one, absolutely and utterly no one, sets prices based on Palestinians.



JERUSALEM

There is a difference between all of modern metropolitan Jerusalem and the actual historic city of Jerusalem.

Some Arab garbage dump twenty miles from the kosel may be part of the official municipality, but can by no stretch of the imagination be considered Jerusalem. No place significantly outside the historic city which is populated mainly by Arabs should realistically be included in Jerusalem.

But what is and what isn't Jerusalem is entirely beside the point - both the Arabs and the Israelis vehemently insist upon the broadest possible definition of Jerusalem, and both sides are utterly intent on keeping as many Arabs in Jerusalem as possible.
There is, consequently, no likely agreement on Jerusalem.