GAZA AS THE WILD CARD

What spurred Hamas to push Fatah out, and who influenced them?
Was it Syria? Was it Iran? Was it AlQaedah? Was it a hard faction within Hamas itself? Or was it, for want of a better term, random outside extremist influence?
The answer does not really matter. Hamas has enough internal fluidity that from the outside it all looks the same.



BAD DREAM FOR ISRAEL

Hamas is now better armed than they have ever been, thanks to the materiel they took from Fatah.
Fatah will soon be armed to the gills, because of the unique blackmail position that they are in – “re-arm us and give us funds, so that we can compete with Hamas”.
Hezbollah (remember them from last summer?) are now better armed than ever before.
And the Lebanese government is in disarray, weakened by Syrian assasinations, bribery, threats, and a rogue refugee camp (whose rogues may very well have come in via Syria, like so many of the outside agents elsewhere in the region). They are in no position to interfere with events below the Litani.



NIGHTMARE FOR EVERYONE ELSE

As for the other players in the region, the Egyptians, Saudis, and Jordanians have egg on their faces.

The Egyptians have seen their carefully crafted balancing act with Hamas and Fatah in Gaza go down the tubes. Instead of the two parties neutralizing or counteracting each other’s insanity, there is now an out-of-control division of the Muslim Brotherhood in a safe haven on Egypt’s northern border. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt was more-or-less held in check by limitations imposed upon them by the security forces. That is no longer the case, they have a sanctuary. We’ve already seen that Egypt could not control the Sinai very well before, and the smuggling in the Sinai may now increase exponentially.

The Saudis browbeat everybody back into negotiating mode several times, forcing them all on the same page. A monumental effort, brutally scuttled by the Hamas triumph. This weakens moderates in the kingdom, clearing the field for more rigid ideologues to argue in favour of jihadism – Hamas is ascendant, Fatah is emasculated, and if Saudi Arabia wishes to counteract Iranian and Syrian influence, it must be more pro-active and more involved with Hamas. Which is something that there was emotional support for anyway – rational and temperate diplomacy in the Arab world too often is seen as pro-American and anti-Islamic.

Jordan, aware of the liability which its large Palestinian population presents, cannot afford to ignore Hamas, and cannot stand by while things spiral out of control in Gaza. Jordan shares borders both with the West Bank and with Syria, in addition to having to cope with participants from the Iraq mess who occasionally wander in. They are in the crossroads position, and inattention would prove dangerous if not suicidal.
As a matter of self-preservation and self-interest, the Jordanians must engage with Hamas – not doing so increases the likelihood of Hamas otherwise engaging with rogue elements in Jordan.



FATAH SLUTS

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan can also not permit Syria to have so dominant a voice in events as it now seems to have. When Syria is full of itself, it creates problems for other countries in the region. This is especially so now that Syria is in deep with Iran.

It is likely that there will be far more input by all the outside players in Gaza and the West Bank than before, with far less impartiality. The Palestinian cause will be back-burnered in favour of rivalry by proxy. Fatahniks in the West Bank will also have less authority and more bile to divvy up amongst themselves, especially if Marwan Barghouti and other imprisoned thugs get sprung, as both the Europeans and Fatah aparatchiks are already demanding.

[And can all those big egos in Fatah really keep their rivalries and jealousies from getting out of hand? Unlikely, while the Europeans are making love to them.]


Even if the United States takes a slow approach, Western Europe has this great anxiousness to dump money and love all over the Palestinians, and in order not to make enemies in Fatah, the amount of money that the Europeans give to the Palestinian Authority will have to dwarf the salaries and stipends that they continue to pay in Gaza. The Americans will not be so generous in Gaza, but nevertheless will have to compete with Europe in the West Bank or see their influence in Fatah suffer.
The net result is that Fatah will make out like a whore during fleet week, and despite their cannibalistic tendencies they will play off everybody to great effect.



THE ROMANCE BETWEEN HAMAS AND SYRIA

Hamas in Gaza will not sit still either. They can turn their attention towards the West Bank. Or towards violent engagement with Israel. Or towards building ties and infrastructure with the rest of the Arab world. Whatever they choose to do, Egypt’s behaviour in the past suggests that as long as Hamas does not make trouble in Egypt, the Egyptian government will pretend it doesn’t see a thing. Can Hamas keep from pissing in their own backyard? More importantly, will the Muslim Brotherhood use Gaza as a base and so invite Egyptian involvement?

Syria cannot afford Hamas inaction. The longer that there is stasis, the greater the chance of Hamas being neutralized, sidetracked, or compromised by other players. If Syria doesn’t want to waste the tactical advantage gained by Hamas kicking Fatah and the Yanks in the pants, it will have to get a move on.

Syria has been improving its war-readiness recently, and, having stirred things up in Lebanon and Gaza, it may feel that it is ready for further action. Assad the father had greater patience than Assad the son, and was more predictable. Even though Assad the son benefits from what his father put in place, he has shown a ruthlessness and pragmatism about his allies and agents that establishes him as a potent plotter and an unstable player, and he may feel that the time is right to impose his own stamp on the Middle East. With America bruised in Iraq, the Europeans unable to force the Iranians to heel, and Israel distracted by the opera in the territories, now may seem like the perfect time.

Hezbollah is chomping at the bit, and the Golan calls. And has there ever been an Arab tyrant who did not dream of being lauded as the saviour of Palestine and the gallant who restored Arab manhood?

The pup may well think that a war with Israel will prove his testicles.