NETANYAHU, RUSSIA, AND IRAN

There are reports that prime-minister Netanyahu made a quick trip to Moscow earlier this week.

This has been strenuously denied by both governments, but a Kremlin official confirmed it recently to the Russian newspaper Komersant, which discussed the matter with various experts who cited extraordinary circumstances and speculated about possible Israeli actions vis-à-vis Iran.

Kommersant quoted an "informed Israeli source', who stated that Israel is ready to take decisive action, and that Netanyahu wished to notify the Kremlin of this matter.

What may have bearing on this is the American conclusion that Iran has enough material to manufacture a nuclear device. As mentioned in the New York times.


"American intelligence agencies have concluded in recent months that Iran has created enough nuclear fuel to make a rapid, if risky, sprint for a nuclear weapon."

Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/10/world/middleeast/10intel.html?_r=1&hpw


The Jokers in the deck, as regards estimates of Iran's capabilities, are number one that a truly accurate assessment is well-nigh impossible, and number two that information on co-operation between Iran and other rogue states or entities is also hidden.
Iran is adept at presenting conflicting masks and policies.

Complicating factors are that much intelligence comes from partial or involved sources, and that there are other players on both sides than just Iran, Israel, and the United States - Syria, for one, which is operating nuclear sites not open to international inspection, and which has co-operative agreements with Iran.

What Iran acquired in the past ten plus years from Russia and other sources is a further matter of concern.

Russian and Chinese objections to renewed sanctions, and European hesitancy, may very soon leave no other option open than the military one.


From Rosh Hashana till Shemini Atzeres will be 'tense' this year.

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Bear in mind that much of this is based on vague reports and unnamed sources. It may consequently reflect little more than speculation, rather than any forward looking statements. Nevertheless, this blogger would not be surprised if a new juncture has been reached, and events accelerate within the next fortnight.